"It's important to remember that National's record levels of support in 2011 were actually a result of non-National voters staying home rather than any real increase in the number of National voters. If the negatives become enough to drive those 2011 abstainers back to the polls then it will spell real trouble for the Government, irrespective of how the opposition is perceived."Time and time again, you get commentators going on about the high levels of support that National has. Or had. And these are people who are paid to report on political matter to the population as a whole or those who are paid to advise political parties (Pagini). Yeah, sure, national got the largest share of the votes at the last election. This does not mean that a majority of the country supports them. It means that the number of voters who supported National is more than the combined total of those who supported other parties and those who did not care enough to vote. The key to getting a left leaning government back in power is not to win over the center as Pagini would have you believe, that's already where Labour are. The key is in reducing the number of voters who do not care.
How can we be sure that these non-caring voters are left leaning? If you take the total number of voters (not as a percentage, the raw number) for National for the last several elections, taking into account population growth, you'll find they haven't changed much. If you do the same for Labour, you'll find that its raw numbers have been dropping. Most likely explanation - a large percentage of the non-caring voters are from the left.